April 28th, 2009 After Market Class –> Elly Hereth – AB=CD and Butterfly Patterns
Есть такой раздел в платной части, где Лесли выкладывает логи интересный дискуссий в их канале. Обсуждают различные стратегии и варианты торговли…
14:51 @Leslie: Elly will be doing some pattern recognition last hour
14:54 @Elly: I’ll start in about 10 minutes and we’ll look at some abcd’s and butterflies
15:03 @Elly: ok…good afternoon everyone!
15:03 @Elly: I am going to start off with a blank chart and we’ll see what we can do with it
15:03 @Elly: If the charts do not scroll for you please click on the link
15:04 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-27/TLO61.png
15:04 @Elly: as of yesterday’s close that was the day session chart , 60 min
15:05 @Elly: so we’re going to look at a pattern that completed within that chart and a potential one that did not
15:05 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-27/TLO62.png
15:05 @Elly: i’ll also show the all session chart but for now
15:06 @Elly: here’s an abcd that completed right close to our previous high
15:06 @Elly: Now one can take that pattern and project a “potential” butterfly set up
15:07 @Elly: so as of the close yesterday, I was looking at this
15:07 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-27/TLO60.png
15:08 @Elly: that was a potential then, of course now it is no longer valid
15:08 @Elly: here is the same thing in all session
15:08 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-27/TLO65.png
15:09 @Elly: so within the butterfly is an abcd pattern
15:09 @Elly: which may or may not complete at the D point of the butterfly
15:09 @Elly: Here is the abcd only chart
15:10 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-27/TLO63.png
15:10 @Elly: well it is essentially the same as the first chart
15:10 @Elly: but this is the all session chart
15:10 @Elly: are there any questions so far?
15:11 kevin: very clear…
15:11 Matt: no for now thanks Elly
15:11 rich: Can a butterfly be up side down ?
15:11 @Elly: yes in fact I will show you one that completed in globex
15:12 @Elly: For those of you who were up at this hour or maybe you are in Europe, then this is what happened during the night
15:12 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-28/TLO67.png
15:12 @Elly: that D is the buy area rich
15:13 Angie: If the D of the AB=CD pattern matches up to the D of the butterfly, the odds of a reveral off the D point should be stronger, correct?
15:13 @Elly: and when a butterfly really works, it can take off
15:13 @Elly: yes Angie, if you can get more things lining up then all the better
15:13 @Elly: Let’s see where that abcd was
15:13 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-28/TLO70.png
15:14 @Elly: in this one, they both came in in the same area….this was abcd extension of 1.27
15:15 @Elly: I think you’ve all probably noticed that we’re getting some of the larger moves and larger patterns setting up in globex
15:15 @Elly: but that is just the nature of the market lately
15:15 Angie: how do you determine your entry, the 1.0 or the 1.272?
15:15 @Elly: you can look at the symmetry of the AB vs. CD legs Angie
15:16 @Elly: do you see how steeply it dropped into the 1.00?
15:16 Angie: yes
15:16 @Elly: you can also try to find another ratio in your area as in the butterfly
15:16 @Elly: let’s look at where this retracement was
15:18 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-28/TLO71.png
15:18 @Elly: so in this case you had the .786 retracement, the butterfly, and the 1.27
15:19 Angie: nice confluence
15:19 @Elly: yes
15:19 @Elly: now if you were considering the 1.00 you would want to ask yourself how far the stop would be in relation to the 1.27 and that .786 down there
15:20 @Elly: so some people might be ok trying the 1.00 and then rebuying if they got stopped out
15:20 @Elly: but the confluence was at that .786 area
15:21 @Elly: am I confusing anyone/
15:21 @Elly: ?
15:21 lori: ur doing good.
15:21 Angie: no, perfectly clear
15:21 @Elly: some times, it is difficult to think of buying or selling at the D point of these patterns, because these are countertrend trades
15:21 kevin: no,, we’re cool
15:22 @Elly: one is going against the grain, generally
15:22 @Elly: and they do not all work, but what I love about them, is they are high probability and you can see them coming
15:22 @Elly: You can be ready in advance for a potential completion and if it does not, you move on to the next one
15:24 @Elly: One can use filters such as the ones Leslie and Kelly talk about, such as long bars, trend conditions
15:24 @Elly: assymetrical moves
15:24 @Elly: choppy BC legs that are more consolidation than clearly defined
15:25 @Elly: but if you don’t get too complicated with these and put too many criteria, you’ll be fine
15:25 @Elly: I’ll show you a small butterfly from today
15:26 @Elly: give me a sec…i need to draw it
15:27 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-28/TLO72.png
15:27 @Elly: we were trading the breakout and made some money but we were also going up into this butterfly
15:28 @Elly: so one has to decide and for Kelly he saw more potential to the upside
15:29 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-28/TLO73.png
15:30 @Elly: there is the small abcd within that butterfly
15:30 @Elly: another confluence
15:31 @Elly: butterflies can fail just like all patterns, but this was one that turned the market
15:31 @Elly: if any of you have a chart you’d like me to look at just ask
15:31 @Elly: or questions?
15:32 lori: if I want to come back and study these charts, can I click on the link to bring any one of them up?
15:32 Diana: elly..with the steep leg and long candle on 5min..for that pattern this afternoon would not sell maybe?
15:33 @Elly: looking just sec will post that
15:35 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-28/TLO74.png
15:35 @Elly: good observation Diana
15:35 @Elly: yes that is a long bar pushing up out of that range
15:36 @Elly: some people trade these with a candle signal
15:36 @Elly: it’s easy to see after the fact that it worked, but generally that long bar would’ve said either pass or wait for a candle (if)
15:38 @Elly: sometimes I have an order out when a bar is forming and get caught in one of these large ones…..in that case just manage it closely and don’t overstay
15:40 @Elly: one last chart
15:40 @Elly: here is the ultimate target for a butterfly
15:41 @Elly: we’ll see if this gets there or not
15:41 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-28/TLO75.png
15:41 @Elly: the 1.27 extension of the whole length of the pattern
15:42 @Elly: Leslie generally takes profits in the CD leg,,,but can get this far
15:42 @Elly: any questions?
15:43 Matt: no thanks elly for all your support
15:43 Diana: none here..Thanks Elly!
15:44 @Elly: yw. Matt
15:44 lori: yes, thanx for ur time and insights
15:44 @Elly: thanks for sticking around
15:44 kevin: thanks elly
15:44 Angie: would you put a fib retracement from the lows around 842 to the hig at 861.5?
15:44 @Elly: yes
15:45 Angie: low closer to 840
15:46 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-28/TLO76.png
15:46 @Elly: that is day only chart
15:47 @Elly: it will be different than all session chart which I will post
15:48 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-28/TLO77.png
15:49 @Elly: globex low to todays high
15:50 Angie: thanks….just looking for confluence with the butterfly pattern you posted earlier
15:50 @Elly: well I think that’s about it for today
15:51 Angie: thanks Elly
15:51 rich: Thank you
15:51 @Elly: which one Angie?
15:51 @Elly: yw rich
15:51 kevin: what time will you be opening the “evening lounge” trading room elly?
15:51 @Elly: btw….do not worry about these butterflies for now, just concentrate on the ABCD’s and where they complete
15:51 kevin: to catch the Globlex moves
15:51 @Elly: yes someone must stay up all night 
15:52 @Elly: I understand this will be posted on the website tonight under After market classes
15:53 Diana: ok..Kevin..your the guy!!! make me some money please…
15:53 kevin: I might as well be the one..as I told elly i’m on line mosts nights anyway
15:54 Diana: send alerts
15:54 kevin: we’ll need to have some nightime patterns…butterflys at day….maybe some owl trades at night.
15:58 @Elly: I was asked how to find ABCD’s
15:58 @Elly: my suggestion is to print out a lot of blank charts with different time frames and start drawing them in by hand
15:59 @Elly: even if you do not know the exact ratios but you will get a good feel for eyeing them that way
15:59 @Elly: try different time frames
15:59 @Elly: here is the one 60 min that I posted earier
16:00 @Elly: http://charts.dacharts.net/2009-04-27/TLO63.png
16:00 @Elly: take any high or low point and see what you can draw
16:01 @Elly: just remeber C is above A if it is an abcd going up (sell)
16:01 @Elly: remember…lol
16:01 @Elly: and vica versa going down (buy)
16:02 @Elly: ok fellow traders…..time for a piece of cheese for me
16:02 @Elly: see you all tomorrow and thanks for coming!
16:02 lori: thankyou!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
16:03 Angie: If the D is hit at the 1,0 and reverses some, maybe a few points, do you then look for the 1.272 extension to be hit or do you consider the AB =CD pattern to have been completed at the 1.0?
16:04 @Elly: I think Leslie went over that earlier regarding Kelly’s buy at 852.5
16:04 Angie: I guessed I missed that
16:04 @Elly: could you re read pls?….I need a bit of food
16:04 Angie: ok
16:05 @Elly: good bye everyone!
